great note man. the ownership situation is weird to me but to your point is probably part of the opportunity. i was reading their press releases about the rights issue and i was struggling with this a bit but i think the diluted share count pro-forma for the rights issue went up an additional 17.5mn bc of the costless warrants. so i was using 46mn shares and usd 35mn mkt cap. dont think it chgs the story materially but figured id point it out and see if i was wrong about that
no your right - i was thinking about it wrong. to your point it looks like the warrants are exercisable in June of 2024 at 70% of the vwap of whatever the stock is traded at in May. i had read it as if they were penny warrants
You were correct, John. The warrants I was looking at were not the majority of them. They trade under MOBTO2 - I have updated the figures with a table that accurately provides the fully diluted share count.
While not ideal, this has essentially taken a future raise at a unspecified price off the table. I've also confirmed Allderma is going to market in 2024.
1. "Kerasal Nail, a product developed and grown by Moberg, achieved a market share in the US that’s 2.5x greater than Moberg’s estimate."
This seems absurd, why would Management think this?
2. "This is due to a combination of its present valuation, the underlying potential of the asset, and existing milestone payments, which currently sum to ~2x and ~3x greater than the current enterprise value and market cap respectively."
Is the 2x-3x the milestone payments and the potential of the asset, or just the milestone payments?
If this management team had a track record of good capital allocation and knowing when to tap the market, I'd be less fearful of another potential rights offering to be on the table for the AGM in May. They basically did a rights offering at the ding-dong lows. Does the launch/success of Terclara allow them to avoid this?
Thanks for the article. I don't see why there seems to be little discussion around about the competition from Polichem/Medexus. Is the expectation that they can coexist and share the market?
great note man. the ownership situation is weird to me but to your point is probably part of the opportunity. i was reading their press releases about the rights issue and i was struggling with this a bit but i think the diluted share count pro-forma for the rights issue went up an additional 17.5mn bc of the costless warrants. so i was using 46mn shares and usd 35mn mkt cap. dont think it chgs the story materially but figured id point it out and see if i was wrong about that
From JAN -> JUNE I'm seeing a reverse split which brought S/O from 100mm to 10mm. Then in the following quarter I'm seeing this.
"In September 2023, Moberg Pharma completed a rights issue of units, comprised of 17,470,149 ordinary shares and warrants
of series 2023:1, as resolved by the Board of Directors on June 28, 2023, as well as a directed issue of units, corresponding to
664,370 ordinary shares and warrants of series 2023:1, to the guarantors in the rights issue who have chosen to receive their
guarantee commission in the form of newly issued units. Each warrant of series 2023:1 entitles the holder to subscribe for one
(1) new ordinary share in the company during the period June 5, 2024 up to and including June 19, 2024. The subscription
price for subscription of ordinary shares with the support of warrants of series 2023:1 will correspond to 70 percent of the
volume-weighted average price in the company’s ordinary share during the period from and including May 20, 2024 up to and
including May 31, 2024"
Is there a large batch of warrants I'm not seeing? Thank you for pointing this out John.
no your right - i was thinking about it wrong. to your point it looks like the warrants are exercisable in June of 2024 at 70% of the vwap of whatever the stock is traded at in May. i had read it as if they were penny warrants
You were correct, John. The warrants I was looking at were not the majority of them. They trade under MOBTO2 - I have updated the figures with a table that accurately provides the fully diluted share count.
While not ideal, this has essentially taken a future raise at a unspecified price off the table. I've also confirmed Allderma is going to market in 2024.
It was still something I should have caught. TYVM John. Appreciate you.
Oops, that's a little embarrassing. Let me recheck and change.
1. "Kerasal Nail, a product developed and grown by Moberg, achieved a market share in the US that’s 2.5x greater than Moberg’s estimate."
This seems absurd, why would Management think this?
2. "This is due to a combination of its present valuation, the underlying potential of the asset, and existing milestone payments, which currently sum to ~2x and ~3x greater than the current enterprise value and market cap respectively."
Is the 2x-3x the milestone payments and the potential of the asset, or just the milestone payments?
If this management team had a track record of good capital allocation and knowing when to tap the market, I'd be less fearful of another potential rights offering to be on the table for the AGM in May. They basically did a rights offering at the ding-dong lows. Does the launch/success of Terclara allow them to avoid this?
The warrants will provide all neccesary funding until they're profitable
I love moberg pharma so much
Thanks for the article. I don't see why there seems to be little discussion around about the competition from Polichem/Medexus. Is the expectation that they can coexist and share the market?
something to do some legwork on for yourself :)
Excelent work!
Questions still open to me: what happens (and when?) Jublia goes off patent?
How long does it take to convert other EU Rx markets into OTC?
How much is it reasonable to assume for milestone payments from Japan, China, US, Latin America?
Patent extensions - how likely?