I was going to wait a year from the original post to do one of these. Although I think it’s probably more appropriate now after having stepped away from a far more active social platform for a time, the warrant exercise coming up, and the recent launch of the product in Sweden.
I’m not particularly surprised by what’s happened to the stock. I don’t know how one could be if they actually understood the product and the market Terclara is stepping into.
Moberg’s two current milestones are around 16 SEK/share on a fully diluted basis, although these can move around depending on forex (I think the number was around 15.5 SEK/share the last time I checked). These are sales-based milestones, and thus aren’t a clean one-time transaction you can account for. But short of the drug being a total flop, I don’t see how these are not achieved well before the expiration of the drugs patent. In addition to this, there are several markets left where licensing deals are on the table. Taisho pharmaceuticals had $45M USD in remaining sales-based milestones owed to Moberg until early last year, but they’re restructuring the company, so the license was returned.
It is my speculation that post the 2nd phase 3 in the US where they’re seeking a change to the dosing regimen, new agreements are going to be made at an auction, and as such it’s plausible we see even more milestone payments struck.
Now if Europe and Japan came around to signing onto what’s collectively a $100M USD obligation, what exactly could they fetch in the US where a typical course of treatment of efinaconazole was $2,307 USD per nail?